Yielding to Opportunity: The Case for Bonds Now
Bonds offer many benefits in a balanced portfolio, offering higher initial yields than the recent past, valuable diversification benefits, and a hedge against stock market turmoil.
Higher Initial Yields, Better Subsequent Returns
Bond yields, and inflation-adjusted yields, are at levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis. For high-quality bonds, starting yields are strongly correlated to subsequent returns. Today’s higher yields bode well for bonds going forward, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index yields 4.6% today (yielded 1.8% on 12/31/21).
Diversification and Risk Reduction
High-quality bonds help smooth returns in a stock portfolio by providing steady income and lower volatility compared to stocks, offsetting the ups and downs of the stock market. This reduces overall portfolio risk, allowing investment portfolios to recover more efficiently to support long-term compounding.
Hedge Against Stock Market Turmoil
In times of stock market turmoil, high-quality bonds serve as an efficient hedge, helping mitigate drawdowns in a stock portfolio. Historically, intermediate-term Treasuries have generated positive returns in 80% of years when U.S. large-cap stocks declined, highlighting their role as a safe haven during market downturns.
An example of the typical relationship between stocks and bonds can be pulled from March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. stocks plunged 35% to their lowest point of the year, while intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries delivered a 5% return. Though not perfect, bonds are a pretty good hedge to stock market turmoil.
What It All Means
Bonds are an essential component of a balanced portfolio, offering multiple benefits that strengthen overall investment strategies. With higher starting yields than in recent years, bonds provide attractive income potential. They also act as a powerful diversification tool, reducing portfolio volatility by offsetting equity market fluctuations. Additionally, bonds serve as a reliable hedge against financial market turbulence, often appreciating in value during periods of economic uncertainty. By enhancing stability, preserving capital, and delivering consistent returns, bonds play a vital role in building a resilient and well-balanced investment portfolio.
DISCLOSURES: The information provided in this letter is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product, and should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice. Proffitt & Goodson, Inc. makes no warranties with regard to the information or results obtained by third parties and its use and disclaims any liability arising out of, or reliance on the information. The information is subject to change and, although based on information that Proffitt & Goodson, Inc. considers reliable, it is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Source information is obtained from independent financial data suppliers (Interactive Data Corporation, Morningstar, etc.). The Market Categories illustrated in this Financial Market Summary are indexes of specific equity, fixed income, or other categories. An index reflects the underlying securities in a particular selection of securities picked due to a particular type of investment. These indexes account for the reinvestment of dividends and other income but do not account for any transaction, custody, tax, or management fees encountered in real life. To that extent, these index numbers are artificial and cannot be duplicated in real life due to the necessity of paying those transaction, custody, tax, and management fees. Industry and specific sector returns (technology, utilities, etc.) do not account for the reinvestment of dividends or other income. Future events will cause these historical rates of return to be different in the future with the potential for loss as well as profit. Specific indexes may change their definition of particular security types included over time. These indexes reflect investments for a limited period of time and do not reflect performance in different economic or market cycles and are not intended to reflect the actual outcomes of any client of Proffitt & Goodson, Inc. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
